• Equities rally on tariff reprieve.

• Investors shouldn’t get complacent with this rally.

• Things have changed.

• Time to de-gross.

·       Carnage in the equity market is now hitting everything.

·       Sentiment and technicals are reaching capitulation points.

·       For those positioned for what transpired, it's time shift your mindset from defense to offense.

·       S&P retested March 13^th low of 5,500 this morning – it's an important level to hold.

·       Growth scare is priced – recession risk is not. 

·       Friday’s jobs report will set the tone for recession watch.

·       A subtle walk back on tariff talk ignites a relief rally.

·       Incoming data and policy moves will determine the extent and duration of this bounce.

·       Diversification is no longer a dirty fifteen-letter word.

·       The stock market is not the measuring stick for this administration.

·       Trade feud with Canada sheds light on U.S. ambitions/strategy.

·       Fiscal policy matters and the baton is being passed.

• Short-term pain for long-term gain – easier said than done.

• Capital flows to where it's treated best.

• Equities are likely close to short-term bottom, but unlikely to be ‘the bottom’.

·        Growth scare getting priced by markets.

·        Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP forecast craters.

·        Not the time to be a hero, it’s a time to carry less risk.

·       Gold, the anti-uncertainty asset.

·       Buffett’s cash pile and a chart that explains why.

·       Market internals indicate a character change is underway.

·       Stocks treading water at all-time highs, gold glitters, and bonds take a hot CPI in stride.

·       Rumors of a potential Mar-a-Lago accord deserve some thought.

·       Implications will be profound.

·       Equities awaiting a catalyst to push them out of a choppy trading range.

·       Deficit math a threat to an ambitious Trump agenda.

·       All that glitters is gold.

·       Asset markets are at risk of being disrupted by tariffs.

·       Investors are better served by forgetting about the politics and thinking about outcomes.

·       Would you have signed up for a 7 – 10% return entering 2025?

 ·       China’s A.I. model DeepSeek threatens the A.I. narrative.

·       Disruption is at the root of technological innovation.

·       Big week for earnings and the latest read on the Fed.

·       Better-than-expected inflation prints took the sting out of yields, which ignited a rally in equities.

·       This week is all about earnings and Trump’s policy agenda.

·       Bonds make sense at current interest rate levels.

·       Equities off to a rocky start to the year but starting to trigger some oversold readings.

·       Not until yields and the U.S. dollar stop going up will equities find some relief.

·       Time to brush up on the fiscal dominance playbook.

• Strategists are optimistic about 2025.

• Where they missed in 2024 was the extent to which investors were willing to pay up for stocks.

• Interest rates and the U.S. dollar at levels that threaten upside outcomes

• Fed has cut the fed funds rate by 100 basis points, yet borrowing rates continue to increase.

• U.S. dollar is a problem up here.

• Happy Holidays and good tidings to all.

·        We’re back to a market regime where the Mag7 is holding up the rest of the market

·        Who isn’t aware of or positioned for the “American Exceptionalism” trade to continue?

·        Russell Napier's interview gives investors something to consider: ‘What if they take their money home?’

·       Outside of the ten largest market cap companies, stocks had a tough week last week.

·       Sentiment is at historic extremes – who’s left to buy besides the relentless bid from passive flows.

·       The new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has their work cut out for them.

Stocks and bonds applaud the Bessant pick for Treasury Secretary. Sentiment and positioning show a bull camp that is very crowded. Now is not the time to reach for return.

·       The election honeymoon period in the equity market is over, with stocks down on the week and for the third time in the last four weeks.

·       Policy over campaign promises coming into focus.

·       Two podcasts well worth a listen.