Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Don’t Focus On What’s Out Of Your Control

·       S&P retested March 13th low of 5,500 this morning – it's an important level to hold.

·       Growth scare is priced – recession risk is not. 

·       Friday’s jobs report will set the tone for recession watch.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Relief Rally, And Then What?

·       A subtle walk back on tariff talk ignites a relief rally.

·       Incoming data and policy moves will determine the extent and duration of this bounce.

·       Diversification is no longer a dirty fifteen-letter word.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Respect The Global Shifts In Fiscal Policy

·       The stock market is not the measuring stick for this administration.

·       Trade feud with Canada sheds light on U.S. ambitions/strategy.

·       Fiscal policy matters and the baton is being passed.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Don’t Count On A Trump ‘Put’…

  • Short-term pain for long-term gain – easier said than done.

  • Capital flows to where it's treated best.

  • Equities are likely close to short-term bottom, but unlikely to be ‘the bottom’.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Thinking Through Structural Change

·       Stocks treading water at all-time highs, gold glitters, and bonds take a hot CPI in stride.

·       Rumors of a potential Mar-a-Lago accord deserve some thought.

·       Implications will be profound.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Push and Pull

·       Equities awaiting a catalyst to push them out of a choppy trading range.

·       Deficit math a threat to an ambitious Trump agenda.

·       All that glitters is gold.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Tariff Man Is Back

·       Asset markets are at risk of being disrupted by tariffs.

·       Investors are better served by forgetting about the politics and thinking about outcomes.

·       Would you have signed up for a 7 – 10% return entering 2025?

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Disruption Comes To The A.I. Narrative

 ·       China’s A.I. model DeepSeek threatens the A.I. narrative.

·       Disruption is at the root of technological innovation.

·       Big week for earnings and the latest read on the Fed.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Time To Brush Up On Your Bond Math

·       Better-than-expected inflation prints took the sting out of yields, which ignited a rally in equities.

·       This week is all about earnings and Trump’s policy agenda.

·       Bonds make sense at current interest rate levels.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Everything Is Trading Off Yields And The Dollar

·       Equities off to a rocky start to the year but starting to trigger some oversold readings.

·       Not until yields and the U.S. dollar stop going up will equities find some relief.

·       Time to brush up on the fiscal dominance playbook.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

A Look At The Consensus View

  • Strategists are optimistic about 2025.

  • Where they missed in 2024 was the extent to which investors were willing to pay up for stocks.

  • Interest rates and the U.S. dollar at levels that threaten upside outcomes

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Quick Thoughts

  • Fed has cut the fed funds rate by 100 basis points, yet borrowing rates continue to increase.

  • U.S. dollar is a problem up here.

  • Happy Holidays and good tidings to all.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

All Aboard

·        We’re back to a market regime where the Mag7 is holding up the rest of the market

·        Who isn’t aware of or positioned for the “American Exceptionalism” trade to continue?

·        Russell Napier's interview gives investors something to consider: ‘What if they take their money home?’

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Sentiment and Positioning Reaching Extremes

·       Outside of the ten largest market cap companies, stocks had a tough week last week.

·       Sentiment is at historic extremes – who’s left to buy besides the relentless bid from passive flows.

·       The new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has their work cut out for them.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Assessing Investment Risk Has Become Taboo

·       The election honeymoon period in the equity market is over, with stocks down on the week and for the third time in the last four weeks.

·       Policy over campaign promises coming into focus.

·       Two podcasts well worth a listen.

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

Looking Beyond The 2016 Playbook

·       Markets pricing in a GOP sweep

·       The set up for the Trump trade part II is less constructive than part I

·       A strong dollar and rising rates if sustained will be problematic for equities

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Corey Casilio Corey Casilio

“Time In The Market” Vs. “Timing The Market”

·       Market’s awaiting the outcome of Tuesday's election.

·       This week’s Fed meeting should be a non-event with a 25-basis point cut expected.

·       The math around ‘market timing’ shows why investors try.

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