·       China’s A.I. model DeepSeek threatens the A.I. narrative.

·       Disruption is at the root of technological innovation.

·       Big week for earnings and the latest read on the Fed.

·       Better-than-expected inflation prints took the sting out of yields, which ignited a rally in equities.

·       This week is all about earnings and Trump’s policy agenda.

·       Bonds make sense at current interest rate levels.

·       Equities off to a rocky start to the year but starting to trigger some oversold readings.

·       Not until yields and the U.S. dollar stop going up will equities find some relief.

·       Time to brush up on the fiscal dominance playbook.

• Strategists are optimistic about 2025.

• Where they missed in 2024 was the extent to which investors were willing to pay up for stocks.

• Interest rates and the U.S. dollar at levels that threaten upside outcomes

• Fed has cut the fed funds rate by 100 basis points, yet borrowing rates continue to increase.

• U.S. dollar is a problem up here.

• Happy Holidays and good tidings to all.

·        We’re back to a market regime where the Mag7 is holding up the rest of the market

·        Who isn’t aware of or positioned for the “American Exceptionalism” trade to continue?

·        Russell Napier's interview gives investors something to consider: ‘What if they take their money home?’

·       Outside of the ten largest market cap companies, stocks had a tough week last week.

·       Sentiment is at historic extremes – who’s left to buy besides the relentless bid from passive flows.

·       The new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has their work cut out for them.

Stocks and bonds applaud the Bessant pick for Treasury Secretary. Sentiment and positioning show a bull camp that is very crowded. Now is not the time to reach for return.

·       The election honeymoon period in the equity market is over, with stocks down on the week and for the third time in the last four weeks.

·       Policy over campaign promises coming into focus.

·       Two podcasts well worth a listen.

·       Markets pricing in a GOP sweep

·       The set up for the Trump trade part II is less constructive than part I

·       A strong dollar and rising rates if sustained will be problematic for equities

·       Market’s awaiting the outcome of Tuesday's election.

·       This week’s Fed meeting should be a non-event with a 25-basis point cut expected.

·       The math around ‘market timing’ shows why investors try.

·       An avalanche of corporate earnings, economic data releases, and the election outcome coming over the next week.

·       It is better to wait and react than try to predict and front-run.

·       Getting the outcomes will remove a lot of uncertainty.

·       Equities logged their sixth consecutive weekly gain, gold shines, and yields press higher.

·       But valuations, sentiment, and positioning signal caution is warranted.

·       Forward returns for equities are expected to moderate, which makes a 4-5% yield on high-quality fixed-income instruments a solid alternative.

Resilience in both the U.S. economy and equities. A rate cut in November is not a foregone conclusion. It’s not all upside for A.I.

• Chinese policymakers deliver monetary and fiscal stimulus – will it be enough?

• Historical return data make it impossible not to have exposure to equity markets

• I’m on the road next week seeing clients, and given the schedule, I won’t have time to pen a missive.  I will be sure to try to make up for it in two weeks. 

• Fed starts its rate cutting cycle with a bang (50bps).

• What the economy does from here will determine if this is a good cutting cycle or a bad one.

• Opportunities in a good cutting cycle.

·       Everything rally (except the U.S. dollar) in anticipation of this week’s Fed meeting

·       The bond market says the Fed is well behind the curve

·       Investors are the most underexposed to the energy sector in over a decade

·       Equity markets experience their worst week of the year.

·       Slowing job growth okay for now, but further weakness from here will be worrisome.

·       Barron’s gets it, “The New Nuclear Age”.

·       Markets close out August with vigor.

·       Tough setup for equities going into seasonally weak part of the calendar.

·       Markets starting to price potential election outcomes and policy.

·         Markets rally following dovish Powell speech.

·         Nvidia earnings and PCE inflation data highlight this week’s events.

·         Most assets are already priced for Goldilocks – back to a ‘shoulder shrug’ setup.