·       Markets await a slate of economic data, including the September jobs report on Friday if we’re able to avert a government shutdown.

·       A good time to revisit return expectations and your financial objectives.

·       Equities embracing the view that the Fed is cutting into an economic soft landing.

·       While a bit frothy and overbought, equities ride the long coattails of constructive monetary, fiscal, and liquidity dynamics.

·       All while the labor market looks more and more sick.

·       Equities continue to rally on expectations of rate cuts and a reacceleration in global growth.

·       Inflated asset prices keeping the economy afloat.

·       Last week’s annual payroll revisions show a labor market that is much weaker than originally thought.

·         Equity markets brush off soft jobs report.

·         Long-term interest rates around the globe are pressing higher.

·         Real assets crushing paper assets in 2025.

·         Powell open-minded to cutting rates.

·         Risk assets celebrate, but not much progress above previous all-time highs.

·         All eyes on earnings from the largest company in the world (NVDA) with most investors all bulled up.

·         Earnings and the AI narrative continue to boost US equities.

·         Foreign capital continues to flow into US assets.

·         Lite week in terms of data: focus will be on Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole.

·       Nasdaq and S&P 500 riding Mega-Cap Tech cocktails.

·       We’re nearing the point at which we’ll be able to measure the tariff impacts on inflation and growth.

·       Few of us have it in us or the opportunity to capture the big returns.

·         That was a weak jobs report, not just for July, but for all of 2025.

·         Focus on the data, not the theatrics that come with it.

·         Was Friday's market action kneejerk or the right read – time will tell.

·       Trade deals aplenty with equity markets having already priced in much of it.

·       Q2 earnings beating expectations with a big week of reports ahead.

·       Turning ‘tactically’ cautious with sentiment and positioning fully reloaded.

·       Mega-cap leadership continues to pull equities higher.

·       Don’t tell the stock market, but economic growth for 2025 is anemic.

·       Structural view – real assets > financial assets.

●      Teflon market taking latest tariff actions in stride.

●      Global liquidity inflecting higher – tailwind for risk assets.

●      Complacency setting in, with most assets priced for only good outcomes. 

• Epic rally in equities that are looking through everything.

• Senate passes One Big Beautiful Bill and July 9th tariff deadline isn’t a real deadline.

• Lots to think about with the slide in the U.S. dollar.

·       Capital markets unphased by U.S. entry into Iran / Israel dispute.

·       U.S. dollar and interest rates signaling a potential regime change is afoot.

·       Some Fed officials breaking ranks and cracking the door for rate cuts.

 ·       S&P 500 reclaims 6,000 as equities become dismissive of bad news.

·       Positioning, sentiment, and valuations are no longer tailwinds.

·       Idea generation and opportunities beyond broad-based U.S. equities.

·       Stocks rally for their best month in over a year, but are unchanged from early-November

·       In its current form, the “Big Beautiful Bill” lacks a stimulative impulse

Year-to-date scorecard suggests the U.S. exceptionalism trade is fading

·       Debt downgrade treated with a yawn, but it does have structural importance for investors.

·       Subtle shift from horrible to less bad pushes equities back near all-time highs.

·       Bond yields are pushing up to levels that will bother equities.

·       Investors should favor exposure to scarce vs. abundant assets.

·       A necessary and welcome reset on U.S. and China trade policy.

·       U.S. equities have recovered all post-Liberation Day decline.

·       Fiscal policy largesse not being reigned in matters.

·       Equities have recovered all the post-liberation day sell-off.

·       Deal headlines or the lack of will be the next catalyst.

·       Market rally overlooking the negatives of this policy cocktail.

Bear market rally or a fading flesh wound?

Sentiment and positioning could be a catalyst to push the S&P 500 up to pre-Liberation Day levels.

Risk/reward profile becomes less desirable between 5,500 – 5,800 on the S&P 500.