·       An avalanche of corporate earnings, economic data releases, and the election outcome coming over the next week.

·       It is better to wait and react than try to predict and front-run.

·       Getting the outcomes will remove a lot of uncertainty.

·       Equities logged their sixth consecutive weekly gain, gold shines, and yields press higher.

·       But valuations, sentiment, and positioning signal caution is warranted.

·       Forward returns for equities are expected to moderate, which makes a 4-5% yield on high-quality fixed-income instruments a solid alternative.

Resilience in both the U.S. economy and equities. A rate cut in November is not a foregone conclusion. It’s not all upside for A.I.

• Chinese policymakers deliver monetary and fiscal stimulus – will it be enough?

• Historical return data make it impossible not to have exposure to equity markets

• I’m on the road next week seeing clients, and given the schedule, I won’t have time to pen a missive.  I will be sure to try to make up for it in two weeks. 

• Fed starts its rate cutting cycle with a bang (50bps).

• What the economy does from here will determine if this is a good cutting cycle or a bad one.

• Opportunities in a good cutting cycle.

·       Everything rally (except the U.S. dollar) in anticipation of this week’s Fed meeting

·       The bond market says the Fed is well behind the curve

·       Investors are the most underexposed to the energy sector in over a decade

·       Equity markets experience their worst week of the year.

·       Slowing job growth okay for now, but further weakness from here will be worrisome.

·       Barron’s gets it, “The New Nuclear Age”.

·       Markets close out August with vigor.

·       Tough setup for equities going into seasonally weak part of the calendar.

·       Markets starting to price potential election outcomes and policy.

·         Markets rally following dovish Powell speech.

·         Nvidia earnings and PCE inflation data highlight this week’s events.

·         Most assets are already priced for Goldilocks – back to a ‘shoulder shrug’ setup.

• Equities have nearly recouped the entire correction at the beginning of the month.

• Don’t look now, but gold continues to power to new all-time highs (+21% year-to-date), and no one is noticing.

• All ears on Powell as he delivers a speech from Jackson on Friday morning.

• A lot of headline drama, but equity markets remained unchanged on the week when all was said and done.

• Some constructive signs in the money supply and bank lending metrics

• No matter how convicted you are on an investment, Mr. Market will always test you

• Japan’s carry trade unwind riles global markets.

• Bond market screaming fed is behind the curve.

• Monday’s session had elements of panic.

• Unwind out of large-cap growth and into small-caps continues.

• Real rates say Fed policy is too tight.

• Big week for data, policy and earnings will set the tone for the rest of summer.

• Growth to value rotation underway.

• Will it have legs? I have my doubts.

• Recession risks on the rise as the ‘margin of safety’ in the equity market erodes.

• The BIS highlights a structural risk that all investors should take note of.

• A lot going on, but not much happening.

• Oil prices, U.S. dollar index, and interest rates all on the rise – bad mix for risk assets.

• Bonds more concerning than equities with existing structural forces.

• Subtle signs of a growth to value rotation percolating.

• Will it last? I have my doubts; the structural dynamics fueling excessive concentration remain too strong.

• Households' exposure to the equity market is unnerving.

• Copper and uranium presenting a buying opportunity.

• S&P 500 gained +1.6% last week, with 315 constituents declining.

• Not much new coming out of the Fed meeting.

• Don’t abandon investment principles that have proven to withstand the test of time.

The performance difference between owning Mega-Cap Tech and not is drastic. Better than expected jobs report shifts Fed rate cut expectations. Inflation report and Fed meeting highlight this week's key events. Last week, investors decided we don’t need commodities in the future (sarcasm intended).

• Risk/reward in equities and credit at unfavorable levels

• Energy stocks relative to tech stocks look interesting

• Most market observers are missing or not talking about the popping of the sovereign debt bubble that has transpired over the past three years.